Prices will probably keep falling, but that’s not the only thing to consider when timing your solar purchase.
Will the price of solar really keep dropping?
No one can predict the future. That said, solar experts have
reached a general consensus on where the industry is going next.
“Are there better techniques ahead? Yeah, maybe,”
Hirs said. “Are things going to become cheaper? Potentially.”
How much can I save if I wait?
There’s no way to know for sure.
“In any type of technological advance where a lot of
money is being invested, it’s kind of like trying to catch a knife,” Hirs
said.
If solar prices continue the same general downward trend from
the past decade, waiting a few years could save you a couple thousand dollars.
But again, this depends
on a lot of factors, including where
you live and what type of solar system you’re
installing. (Not to mention which
installer you use.) As solar and energy
storage become more popular in the US, however,
you could unlock some savings as the technology itself becomes more common. And
if you partner up with your neighbors, you could even snag a group discount by
giving an installer a big batch of work in the same neighborhood.
Right now, solar only accounts for 5% of US energy production, which means there’s a lot of
untapped potential — and empty rooftops — across the country. If solar
adoption takes off, that will bode well for the industry, and for the
prices that consumers see on their installation bill.
What do I lose if I wait?
By waiting to install solar, you could also lose out on some of the incentives that make it more affordable. While the federal solar tax credit is guaranteed for the next decade, state-level incentives are much less secure. In fact, policies like net metering and tax benefits are often subject to the political whims of elected commissioners.
Five or 10 years from now, your local electric utility might not have such a generous payback rate for the excess electricity your solar panels generate. In California, for example, state regulators recently cut the credit value for excess energy by 75%.
With that level of uncertainty, you might stand to lose a lot if you hold out for the potential of lower solar costs down the line.